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John Mbadi Fighting a Losing War, Commiting Political Suicide

Mbadi had written a bright political recipe and went hunting antelope, but he’s getting distracted because a squirrel passed across him

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party chairman John Mbadi is committing political suicide by opening fighting Raila Odinga.

Robert Greene in The 48 Laws of Power, advises those seeking power in Law 22 to use the surrender tactic, transforming weakness into power. He explains:

“When you are weaker, never fight for honour’s sake; choose surrender instead. Surrender gives you time to recover, time to torment and irritate your conqueror, time to wait for his power to wane. Do not give him the satisfaction of fighting and defeating you – surrender first. Make surrender a tool of power.”

In waging war against Raila, Mbadi has shown that he’s not a tactician at all. Less than 2 months to the General Election, he has made Raila and ODM nomination cases his favourite punching bags.

Mbadi has on several occasions, limited the scope of ODM, visiting Homa Bay County, many times, than William Ruto has visited Mt Kenya.

Mbadi is behaving like a jilted lover, issuing tantrums over broken love promises.

 The genesis of word of wars

Mbadi was at the forefront in the fight against Governor Cyprian Awiti, whose failure to make Homa Bay hospitable, turn into a shameful disaster. His underperformance is, in a summary; a historic shame!

The ODM Homa Bay gubernatorial nomination was going to be Kenya’s Game of Thrones — pitting John Mbadi, Dr Evans Kidero, Gladys Wanga, and Joseph Oyugi Mangwanga, among other spectators.

In his village campaigns, Mbadi bragged that being the ODM chairman, there was no way he was going to issue certificate to no one but himself. Additionally, the braggadocios Mbadi he said, he can only be president or governor – and since Raila was running for president, he could only be Homa Bay’s governor. 

However, in its wisdom, the party elected to give Gladys Wanga a direct ticket.

Mbadi had planned to support Mr Magwanga on an independent ticket, to humiliate Raila and ODM. But, Raila defeated him in wisdom and had Magwanga deputize Wanga.

It’s at this moment that Mbadi went ballistic, giving ultimatums, theatrics attempting to dialogue Wanga. He even swore not to campaign for the party’s candidates in Homa Bay County.

The cat was out of the bag — Mbadi opened wars against ODM numéro uno; Raila Odinga and the party honchos.

Mbadi again broke law 19 of Green’s 48 Laws of Power: “Know who you are dealing with — do not offend the wrong person.”

Disillusioned Mbadi

Mbadi forgot one fundamental rule in politics, as illustrated by Frank Underwood in House of Cards, thus “Proximity to power deludes some people into thinking they wield it.”

Mbadi – the Leader of the Minority Party in the National Assembly, and Chairperson of ODM – thought just because he could have coffee with Raila, and other powerhouses like Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o, therefore he had located powerbut he had overestimated his influence in the ODM hierarchy.

He also overrated democracy, and as Herman Manyora says, “politics is not loved affairs.” Anyone looking for fairness should look elsewhere. He was disillusioned by the democratic fancy tenant of the people, by the people, for the people.

He says he wasn’t consulted on the insurance of direct tickets to some candidates. If indeed this is true, then it’s either party is ignoring him, or, he has outlived his usefulness.

Mbadi reducing ODM into a village party

Mbadi has reduced ODM into a village party; ODM doesn’t start and ends in Homa Bay.

As the chair, he should demonstrate his loyalty and campaign for the party’s candidates, his baseless tantrums notwithstanding.

He is exposing his intentions against the political thumb rule of concealing intentions and fighting many “antagonists” on many frontiers — the very reasons why Adolf Hitler lost in WW II.

History is not on Mbadi’s side

The ethnocentric history of Kenya confirms there can only be one bull — one centre of power, in an epoch.

Jomo Kenyatta had a hegemonic control over the Kikuyu, and until he died, there emerged Mwai Kibaki, ultimately, and later Uhuru Kenyatta.

The Kalenjins had Moi, and William Ruto was tactful enough, to wait and inherit the tyrannical Kalenjin numbers when Nyanyo left power.

Jaramogi firmly held the Luos, even with Tom Mboya causing turbulences, he succeed and passed the baton to Raila.

Can the bandwagon of Mbadi, Kidero, in Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o’s words in Daughter of the Low Land “smash Raila’s testicles when he’s wide awake?”

Mbadi had written a bright political recipe and went hunting antelope, but he’s getting distracted because a squirrel passed across him.

In the wise counsel of the sagacious Chinua Achebe, “it is praiseworthy to be brave and fearless,” just like Mbadi, “but sometimes it is better to be a coward. We often stand in the compound of a coward to point at the ruins where a brave man used to live.”

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