William Ruto fashioned his presidential theme on Hustler’s Nation and the indefensible Bottom-Up Economic Model until Raila Odinga complicated the matrix by gender equation and Prof George Wajackoyah joined the race to State House.
The Hustler’s Nation narrative excited the frustrated youths hit by joblessness. The youths found a shoulder when Ruto told them their sorry state of affairs was caused by the ‘dynasty’ – to dominate and control the capital.
With Rigathi Gachagua saying in the event they take power, they’d bring down giant companies like Safaricom to start small units that’d directly benefit the youths, it become exciting, but smoked doom.
Then Orange numero uno brought Martha Karua, and since then, presidential politics has never been this complex.
The Martha Effect has been so strong and delicate that Ruto was forced to sign a charter with the women’s league committing to providing free diapers for newborn babies for three months and free sanitary pads for all girls in the country, among others. But, it was too late.
The number of times Ruto has visited Mt Kenya hunting votes is more than the number of times you’ve probably visited the washroom since the promulgation of the Constitution 2010.
Ruto solely banked on the tyrannical Kikuyu Votes to win. It will be naïve to assume Karua has not run away with a huge chunk of the Mountain Votes to Azimio.
Karua is a woman, she’s the heroine of the Mountain, but even most important, she’s a reformist. Additionally, she is easily sellable outside the Mountain. Rigathi, with a loose mouth, conservative attitude and corruption hanging over his head like shame, is a hard sell outside the Kikuyu constituency.
For a sober Kikuyu voter, the presidential race is no longer between Raila and Ruto, but between Karua and Rigathi. Outside Central, it’s between reformists and conservatives, and the differences are as clear as between Rumba and Gengetone.
Wajackoyah Threats to Ruto
Complicating matters further for Ruto is Prof Wajackoyah. Against all odds, the Roots Party presidential candidate was cleared by the IEBC to run for the president of Kenya.
There’re no questions about Wajackoyah’s academic qualifications. He could donate some of his degree certificates to Johnson Sakaja, Oscar Sudi, Jimi Wajingi, Aisha Jumwa, Wavinya Ndeti, Mike Sonko and Ferdinand Waititu, etc., and still remain with enough to allow him entry into Dubai.
What I’m asking silently is how he managed to get the 2,000 signatures from [at least] 24 counties as required by law. Well, IEBC could be playing politics for political reasons because it’s a political season.
Wajackoyah has premised his message around the legalisation and plantation of marijuana, snake farming and hanging the corrupt as his panacea to economic challenges. What more could be enticing and exciting to an unemployed graduate youth? What more could be so interesting to a drugged youth? Bhang is romanticised as an international herb, pure high-grade, hashish, pot, etc. Aren’t these some of the things driving the youths wild?
Karl Marx postulates a poor man has nothing to lose, but his labour. Prisoned by harsh inequalities orchestrated by the bourgeoisie capitalists, what would fantasize a youth more than a message that those who make their lives miserable would be hanged?
Ruto’s Headache and Raila’s Unshaken Constituency
Raila too creates a utopia for the youths – 6K monthly, social assistance to single mothers, free education, revamping Kazi Mtaani, etc.
Promises by Wajackoyah and Raila favourably complete with the fallacious Ruto’s commitments to the rich vote youth constituency. However, Raila’s vote base has never been shaken.
In 2007, the Orange boss got 44.07% against Mwai Kibaki’s 46.42%. In 2013, Raila managed 43.7% against Uhuru Kenyatta’s 50.51. The results were contested, but then Chief Justice Willy Mutunga threw the petition within 5 minutes.
The Enigma of Kenyan Politics would get 44.94% with President Kenyatta getting 54.17% in 2017 and David Maraga, then Chief Justice led the Apex Court in nulling the results. On overage, it’s arguable Raila’s base is at 44.23%.
The 2022 presidential election is no brainier; it is not the 2007’s game of thrones. Raila’s support base is as firm as ever, and the fact that he has climbed the Mountain – traditionally never voted him with a significant number in the past – I will not be surprised if he wins the presidential votes with 65%.
Ruto hasn’t identified his support base. The last time he led a No-camp camp campaign against the Constitution 2010, the vote was 32.45% against an overwhelming 68.55% Yes-camp led by Raila and Kibaki. And, with Wajackoyah freshi barida shaking Ruto’s perceived demographic, the Son of Sugoi should start polishing his concession speech.